Buyer's Market or Seller's Market? Why Minneapolis Data Seems to Disagree
Redfin just called the Twin Cities a buyer’s market. But inside that metro, Redfin calls Minneapolis “very competitive.” So which is it? Read this market wrong and you can price your home wrong, or think you have leverage you don’t. I compared the national, metro and Minneapolis numbers side by side.
Figures are as of my video above (October 2026).
Nationally: more sellers than buyers
- About 46% of U.S. home sales included a seller concession in May, up from 43% a year earlier and the highest May share Redfin has recorded.
- In August, Redfin estimated about 58% more sellers than buyers nationwide, the widest gap in its records.
- Nearly three-quarters of major metros now count as buyer’s markets; only five are still seller’s markets.
The Twin Cities: a “buyer’s market”
Redfin puts the metro in that group too, with sellers outnumbering buyers by about 18% in August. Buyers have more choices, and sellers have to work harder.
Minneapolis: “very competitive”
Yet Redfin gives the city of Minneapolis a Compete Score of 79 out of 100:
- The average home gets about three offers and sells in about 23 days.
- “Hot homes” sell about 4% over asking and go pending in about 11 days.
- The sale-to-list ratio is 100.3%, and about 4 in 10 homes sell above asking, down a few points from last year.
The softening shows up in two places: about 32% of Minneapolis listings had a price cut (up about three points), and typical days on market rose from 20 to 23.
How both can be true
They measure different things:
- The buyer’s market label covers the whole metro and compares the number of sellers to buyers. It tells you how much choice buyers have.
- The Compete Score covers only the city of Minneapolis and looks at what happens after a home is listed: how fast it sells and for how much.
The biggest difference isn’t geography; it’s home type. Attached homes, especially Minneapolis and Saint Paul condos, are struggling, while detached single-family homes in high-demand areas are doing something very different. Redfin’s own numbers show it: central Minneapolis, with lots of downtown condos, scores just 39 out of 100. Homes there get about one offer, take around 75 days and sell about 3% below asking. Averaging the two together describes neither.
So before you react to a headline, know what it’s counting, and look at what’s happening with homes like yours. (More in why some homes sit while others get multiple offers.)
The mistake behind homes that sit
A third of listings cut their price while 4 in 10 sold over asking. A big part of the difference is pricing with stale data. Agents often price from sales 90 to 180 days old, and in a changing market that can already be out of date. If old data sets the price too high, the house sits.
I look hardest at pending sales, because they show what buyers agreed to pay recently, and at active listings, because they’re your competition.
When a home sits, people blame the seller. But usually the seller was given that number by their agent. Sometimes it happens on purpose: “buying the listing” means quoting an unrealistically high price to win the business. If three agents seem equal and one says your home will sell for tens of thousands more, of course that’s tempting. It can cost you 60 days and a series of price cuts.
Pick an advisor, not a salesperson
Would you choose your brother-in-law as your heart surgeon because he just graduated, over a surgeon down the hall with 300 operations? Your home is likely your biggest financial asset. The national average agent sells about five homes a year, and that’s not enough time in the market to read it well. There are weeks our team sells 15 homes. That volume is what lets us price a home honestly from day one.
Want to know what your home can sell for today? We’ll look at the pendings, actives and recent sales on your street. Talk with our team, or start with your home’s estimated value.
