Not a Crash, but Worse for Some Sellers: 10 Signals in the Minneapolis Market

Is the Minneapolis housing market about to crash? Homes are taking a lot longer to sell, so it’s a fair question. But prices are still up, and I don’t think we’ll see anything like 2006 to 2009. What’s happening instead could be worse for some sellers: the market is choosing which homes get left behind. Some sell in three weeks at full price. Others sit for months and sell for less.

I’ve spent more than 25 years in this market, and our team has closed more than 3,700 transactions. We dug into the numbers, buyer costs, local rules and problems we’ve seen in real deals. Here’s what we found. Figures are as of my video above (October 2026).

1. Prices are up, but homes take much longer to sell

The Minneapolis median sale price hit $375,000 in July, up 5.9%. Closed sales were up 16.7% and pending sales up 9.8%. Buyers didn’t disappear. But Minneapolis homes took about 41 days to sell in July and 53 in August, compared with about 28 a year earlier, a 41% jump. Across the metro, days on market were basically flat at about 40, and Saint Paul was 43. Minneapolis is the only part of the market where the clock changed a lot.

2. Sellers have real competition again

The metro had over 11,500 homes for sale in July, up 6.7%, and Minnesota had more than 20,000, the most in seven years. Minneapolis reached about 3.1 months of supply. That’s still tight (a balanced market is closer to six months), but buyers who used to choose among four homes might now have eight. They don’t have to overlook bad carpet, old windows or tired mechanicals. You need to win both the price contest and the beauty contest.

3. Low mortgage rates keep owners stuck

Many owners locked in rates in the 2% and 3% range in 2020 to early 2022. Rates climbed close to 7% this summer. For perspective, the 30-year fixed rate has averaged about 7.25% over the last 50 years. Moving even a few blocks means starting over at today’s price and today’s rate, so some owners stay put. Your buyer may have a low rate of their own to give up, too. If you want to sell, run your numbers before you list.

4. Not every price range is moving the same

Across Minnesota, sales over $1 million were up 18%, while pending sales under $400,000 were up just 3.7%. Homes with four or more bedrooms were up 7.7%, two-bedroom homes 2.5%. Previously owned home sales were up 4.9%, while new construction was down slightly. If you own an entry-level home, be careful with headlines and compare your home with others in your price range.

5. Property taxes are rising

When I made the video, these levy increases had been proposed (final budgets are set in December):

• Minneapolis: 11.3% for 2027, one of the largest increases since at least 2000
• Ramsey County: 8.25%
• White Bear Lake: about 12%
• Wayzata: 11.5%
• Saint Paul: 6.8%
• Dakota County: the county manager recommended 18.7%

Part of the pressure goes back to empty downtown office buildings, which used to carry a big share of the tax base. Higher taxes affect what your buyer can afford. (Check our property tax info by city.)

6. Your buyer’s insurance bill may be much higher than yours

Minnesota home insurance rates rose about 34% in 2025, the biggest one-year jump in the country. The average premium reached about $3,530 a year, roughly 20% above the national average of about $2,950, moving Minnesota from 21st to 9th most expensive. Hail is a big reason, with the average Minnesota hail claim close to $30,000. Many policies now use percentage deductibles for wind and hail, often 1% to 5%. On a home insured for $400,000, a 2% deductible means the owner pays the first $8,000. Some insurers also treat roofs over about 15 years old as near the end of their life. If insurance pushes your buyer’s payment too high, they can walk away.

7. The buyer’s inspection can change what you must disclose

Under Minnesota Statute 513.55, sellers must disclose material facts they know about. You don’t have to search for every possible problem, but once an inspection brings something to your attention, you know about it. If that deal falls apart, it goes on your disclosure for the next buyer.

Buyers need realistic expectations, too. An existing home will always have some issues, just like a used car. If you want everything brand new with a warranty, new construction may be the way to go.

8. Radon can surprise you mid-deal

Minnesota doesn’t require sellers to test for radon, but you must disclose what you know: past test results and any mitigation system. Most sellers haven’t tested, so the buyer tests during the inspection window. If it comes back high, you’re negotiating a mitigation system under pressure. Test ahead of time and handle it on your schedule. (In my own home, we measured almost 19 pCi/L before installing a system; the EPA recommends action at 4.)

9. Condo sellers are selling the whole building

Condo sales were up 10.2% statewide, and townhome sales were up 2.8%. But with a condo, especially a high-rise, buyers are also buying the parking garage, the common areas and the association’s finances. Road salt has damaged parking garage columns in some downtown Minneapolis buildings, leading to enormous special assessments.

Minnesota law requires a resale disclosure certificate (Statute 515B.4-107), and buyers get the association’s documents and financials, including reserves and upcoming assessments, usually with about 10 days to cancel. If you’re buying a condo built before about 2000, study the reserve fund and planned capital projects. Strong finances help a sale; weak ones can sink it.

10. City sale evaluations can cost you before you list

Several Twin Cities cities, including Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Richfield, Bloomington and St. Louis Park, require a truth-in-sale-of-housing evaluation before a home goes on the market. Roughly a dozen metro cities have some version, from a simple sewer check to something close to a full inspection. It covers single-family homes, duplexes and townhouses (not previously owned condos). You hire a city-licensed evaluator, and in many cities the report is public, so buyers can read it before they walk in. Required repairs not finished by closing usually transfer to the buyer, often with about 90 days to complete them.

Common call-outs you can fix ahead of time:

• Backflow preventers on outdoor spigots and washing machine hookups
• Broken windows
• Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Chipping and peeling paint

See our guide to city selling rules in Minnesota.

The bottom line

Minneapolis can look like a good market overall while your home struggles. The difference often comes down to something specific to your property. If you’re planning to sell, talk with our team and we’ll look at what could affect your sale before you list, or start with your home’s estimated value.