The Minnesota 'Exodus' Is Over: Where the State Is Actually Growing
For years, more people left Minnesota than moved in. That started to change last year: for the first time since 2018, Minnesota gained more people from other states than it lost. If you’re buying or selling, you need to know where that turnaround is actually happening, because old trends can point you in the wrong direction.
Figures are as of my video above (October 2026).
The old story was real
Minnesota did lose people to other states several years in a row. The worst year was 2022, when about 17,000 more people left than arrived. From 2021 through 2023, Minnesota lost almost 44,000 people to other states.
The new numbers
Minnesota’s population topped 5.83 million in July 2025, the newest official figure, adding about 33,000 people in a year (about 0.6%):
- About 12,000 from births outpacing deaths
- About 12,500 from international migration
- About 8,300 from other states, Minnesota’s first domestic gain since 2018
Minnesota didn’t suddenly become a boom state. But more people are choosing to move here, and more people moving in can mean more buyers and more competition in some areas.
Who’s leaving, and who’s coming
IRS data for 2022 to 2023 shows Minnesota lost about 7,600 people to other states, many of them retirees heading to states with low or no income tax, like Florida (the top destination), Texas, Tennessee and Arizona. Warm weather is part of it, too.
The people moving in tell a different story. Wisconsin sends Minnesota more new residents than any other state, followed by North Dakota, Texas, California, Florida and Iowa, with Illinois also on the list. Taxes don’t explain the whole picture.
Rural Minnesota isn’t dying
In the 2010s, 46 counties outside the metro lost population. From 2020 to 2024, that number dropped to just 19. Greater Minnesota counties grew by about 1.5% on average this decade, after shrinking about half a percent the decade before. As one researcher who tracks rural Minnesota put it, the old story that rural Minnesota is dying just isn’t true.
Where the growth is
Some hub counties never stopped growing, even in the rough years:
- Olmsted County (Rochester)
- Stearns County (St. Cloud)
- Clay County (Moorhead)
- Blue Earth County (Mankato)
Most have a major employer or hospital system providing steady jobs. Central Minnesota’s lake country grew too, likely people retiring to their lake homes. But Wright County stands out most: up about 11.5% since 2020, the fastest rate of any Minnesota county.
Where it isn’t
Some of the biggest drops since 2020 are in Traverse County (down nearly 7%), Mahnomen County (about 4.8%) and Kittson County (about 4.2%). These small counties all sit far from a regional hub, and distance from a major job center keeps showing up as the deciding factor, in Minnesota and across the country.
Why people are choosing Minnesota
- 18 Fortune 500 headquarters, a lot for a state this size, concentrated in steady industries like health care, food and banking.
- More than 44,000 jobs added in the year through July. Health care has added more jobs than any other industry over the past decade, and state projections expect 50,000 new jobs through 2027, more than half in health care and social assistance.
- A cost of living and home prices below the national average. Steady industries plus lower costs in the same place is unusual.
What it means if you’re buying
Focus on the county, not the state headline. Ask:
- How close is the home to a growing job center?
- Does the area depend on one major employer, or several?
- Are there enough nearby sales to compare prices, and enough buyers when it’s time to sell?
Regional hub counties already have employers and services, which can support values over time. More remote counties often have lower prices but fewer buyers at resale. This turnaround is still new, and buying early in a growing hub county can put you in a better spot.
Want to know what’s happening in your county? Reach out and we’ll take a look, or read about the outer-ring suburbs where the metro is growing.
